Methodology & Signals

This page explains how we decide the headline answer to the question: are we at war with Russia? Our approach is deliberately lightweight, but grounded in publicly verifiable signals and editorial judgement.

What we monitor

Our signals fall into three broad categories:

Official statements Reputable reporting Patterns & signals

• Official statements: communiqués, press conferences, and treaty references from NATO, the EU, and national governments.
• Reputable reporting: coverage from internationally recognised outlets with rigorous editorial standards.
• Patterns & signals: repeated or escalatory behaviour such as sustained airspace incursions, missile and drone strikes, or rapid mobilisation that NATO members themselves highlight.

Decision criteria for the homepage answer

The homepage shows a binary headline (“Yes” or “No”) supported by context. We only change that answer in response to material developments:

• Formal invocation of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
• An official declaration of war by a NATO member or by NATO collectively.
• Allied consensus statements that clearly shift posture from deterrence/support to direct armed conflict.

Not every military or diplomatic incident meets this bar. Airspace violations, cyberattacks, or espionage activity are reported in context but do not alone change the top-line answer.

Update cadence

We check for updates regularly and refresh the homepage timestamp accordingly. During periods of higher tension we may increase monitoring frequency. Each update is noted in the update log section of the homepage.

Editorial workflow

• Collection: we scan NATO, EU, and government sources as well as major wires (AP, Reuters) and analysis outlets (e.g., ISW).
• Filtering: we prioritise events with potential collective-defence implications.
• Summarisation: short, neutral summaries are written in plain English, with links back to original sources.
• Review: the homepage answer is revisited when signals cross thresholds above.

Limitations

This is a best-effort curation workflow. We cannot guarantee completeness, speed, or real-time accuracy. Headlines are summaries, not exhaustive coverage. Readers should consult official documents before drawing conclusions or making decisions.

We are not affiliated with NATO, the EU, or any government. Nothing here is legal, military, or policy advice.

Corrections and feedback

We welcome corrections and reader feedback. If you spot errors, broken links, or missing signals, email us at hello@areweatwarwithrussia.com. Significant corrections will be acknowledged in the update log.

This methodology was last expanded in October 2025 to provide more detail on sources, decision thresholds, and editorial workflow.